Policy Paper Iran

SSAP Issue Paper Iran:

When Richard Nixon announced the Nixon Doctrine He looked for states who could stand in their region and defend the values and principles America stood for. In the Middle East their were two Pillars. One was Saudi Arabia and the other Iran, then under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Even today there are two major axis in US policy in the middle east one is still our ally but after the Islamic revolution in 1979 the other axis turned against the United States. Iran sponsors terror in Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to name just a few locations. They offer a security umbrella for Syria to defy international norms and laws. But is Iran a cartoonish supervillian with a Pseudo Hitler out to dominate and walk the middle east like a colossus or is their a deeper picture we must look at when we delve into our Public Policy.

To look at Iran and understand Iran in policy I would encourage you to look at a map of the middle east before WWI and a map of the Middle East today. Minus some insignificant issues only the Turks and the Iranians are states that go back that far. Iran was never carved apart in the Versailles Conference. Iran is part of a long tradition going back to the Persian empire in the bible.A large portion of the Persian Gulf shore remains Iranian as it was before. If your map shows oil supply and reserves Iran holds large oil supplies and mineral riches. As Richard Nixon and his foreign policy team recognized Iran would be a power from a perspective of nationalism and resources. But whereas Richard Nixon cultivated Iran as an ally other administrations such as the Carter administration were combative to the Iranian regime, which lead to the reforms that enabled the Iranian Extremists to take control of the political culture of Iran and then they over reacted and the oppression encouraged by that change in policy lead to revolution and American hostages held at an embassy.

But in todays world matters have changed. In the former Central Asian republics of the USSR we see ethnic Persians in control or significant minorities in all of these states. We see ethnic Persians as well in Afghanistan. There is whats called the “Shiite Crescent” in Southern Iraq and Northern Saudi arabia along with Iran. This Crescent puts itself in dominion over a larger part of the oil supply then Just Iran. With these additional factors and the revolution which Iran has sought to Import into Lebanon the role of Iran expanding as a power, which its resources and position in the world enable them to, even more dangerous.

Iran has a large sphere of influence and resources to spread the influence. States around it (Pakistan and India) have developed Nuclear programs. Israel a state who often finds itself on the wrong end of Iranian asymmetric influence has nuclear weapons and Iraq under the Baathist regime attempted to Develop nuclear weapons. And with rumors and tall tales putting secret Nuclear programs in states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt as well. Iran has shown itself desirous of Nuclear weapons through their participation in the AQ Khan network, as well as several covert incidents with former soviet engineers. Iran has developed missiles of longer and longer range which only serve a practical purpose with non conventional warheads. But does this mean Iran is developing Nuclear weapons?

Strong evidence suggests that they are, however they like the Israelis could be seeking a policy of nuclear ambiguity. While Israel has through controlled sources leaked out evidence of a nuclear device they have never tested a device so it is unconfirmed. Could Iran be doing the same and wanting to gain the same security umbrella the Israelis have from Nuclear ambiguity or to negate the Israeli advantage. Not knowing if the Iranians have a bomb could be just as dangerous to Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other states within the sphere of Iran. But there are other issues which are concerning with Iran as well outside of the potential of Iranian Nuclear weapons.

Iraq is an example of the problem Iranian influence plays in the region. A Grand Ayatollah returned to Iraq and offered to lead his people down an alternative pathway. He moved to put the state and the theocratic institutions as separate institutions of power. The religious institutions of Iraq held prominence over the religious institutions of Iran and had a stable and democratic Iraq prospered Iranian claims of Islamic centered authority for their state would become seriously questionable. So Iran's sponsorship of Al-Sadar and others in Southern Iran and the instability and loss of life that came was predictable, especially with the history of Lebanon as another example of this same formula. While the United States government did want to avoid setting up “puppets” in the Iraqi polity but when Iran enters into the picture such a void will be filled by the only actor willing to set up “puppets”

However in Iran the story is not all bleak their exists a youth movement that is vehemently opposed to the current regime. Iranian Labor Unions are seeing people imprisoned for labor disobedience. A Middle Class which has grown in some of the few bright spots in the economy as well as ethnic groups struggling for self determination. The key in US policy is to encourage these groups to peacefully dissent, while standing strong in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, and encouraging through our allies and the international community for the Iranian regime to stop supporting terror and stop seeking Weapons of mass destruction. By supporting dissidents within, putting out Military around Iran, and diplomatic Isolation we can put all pressures on them short of military conflict which is the only climate where true diplomacy can work